2023 in review: China pulls a Middle East coup, but can it sustain expectations?

For decades, China’s role in the Middle East had been as a top non-oil trading partner and economic force that shied away from regional politics. That all changed dramatically on March 10, when Beijing surprised the world in announcing a Saudi-Iran normalization deal. 

The landmark agreement saw Beijing barging into the Middle East political landscape, capitalizing on a void created by the United States’ mistakes and other actions over the last 20 years, including the Iraq War and dangerous standoff with Iran, to broker a deal between the two countries whose rivalry has largely shaped the region since 1979. 

The shift that the agreement showcased emerged in parallel with Beijing expanding its defense and tech ties with Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates while courting Qatar and Turkey on liquified natural gas and nuclear cooperation.

Even with these agreements, however, there are limits to China’s regional role, in large part due to its ambivalence in projecting power and its preference for a behind-the-scenes approach that will likely contain its influence in 2024.