As Assad softens tone, can Turkey and Syria normalize relations?

Analysis

Barin Kayaoglu

Jul 28, 2024

NICOSIA, CYPRUS - JULY 20: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during celebrations marking the 50th anniversary of Turkey's invasion of Cyprus on July 20, 2024 in occupied northern Nicosia, Cyprus. Fifty years has passed since Turkey's invasion and occupation of northern Cyprus, spurred in 1974 by Greece's attempts to oust the Cypriot president and forge a political union with the island. Over time, the northern part became the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which is largely populated — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during celebrations marking the 50th anniversary of Turkey's military intervention in Cyprus on July 20, 2024, in northern Nicosia, Cyprus. — Alexis Mitas/Getty Images

As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been openly seeking dialogue with Damascus, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who used to demand the withdrawal of Turkish troops from his country before any direct talks could even begin, appears to have softened his tone.

Rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus is urgent amid geopolitical risks within Syria, especially Syrian Kurdish groups’ efforts to consolidate their de facto autonomy in the northeast, and the broader region, such as the war in the Gaza Strip and escalating tensions between Israel and Iran-backed groups in Lebanon and Yemen.

Experts told Al-Monitor that among several pressing issues that will shape Turkey-Syria normalization talks, the trickiest will be the future of Turkish troops in Syria, Turkey-backed Syrian opposition groups and Syrian migrants in Turkey.

The disarming of groups such as the Idlib-based jihadists Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the northwest and the future of the US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which Ankara deems a top national security threat, in the northeast stand out as the most challenging issues between the two capitals.