Guarded optimism on Palestinian reconciliation ahead of Fatah-Hamas meeting in China

The upcoming meeting was originally scheduled for this past April, but the Fatah team had to postpone it for unknown reasons. (A meeting of lower-level officials took place in April and May, but high-ranking Fatah and Hamas representatives did not attend.) Some argued at the time that Fatah was stalling in order to avoid giving Hamas legitimacy, but the fact that Fatah is sending its top leader, Alloul, to Beijing negates that claim. Chinese officials in Ramallah have also been meeting behind the scenes with all parties to try to bridge gaps.

The US-led cease-fire discussions on the Gaza war hosted by Qatar and Egypt also add to the urgency of an agreement. It is unlikely that Hamas, which attacked Israel on Oct. 7, will be allowed to lead any postwar governing and rebuilding effort. But without the group's total demise or surrender, which the United States says is unlikely, the group could continue to pose a threat to new administrators coming in to run the Strip. 

The only Palestinian entity that would satisfy foreign powers working on a postwar plan for Gaza is the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority. But Fatah will go to Gaza only after reaching an agreement with Hamas, provided that a cease-fire agreement includes a clear political path to overall Palestinian independence. 

Still, it is too early to predict exactly what will transpire in China. From the PLO side, they are hoping that at the very least the Chinese-led effort might lead to an unequivocal acceptance by Hamas of the political issues that have already garnered general Palestinian consensus and become part of international law — namely, accepting a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders. 

For the leadership in Ramallah, the issues they are hoping will be agreed to in China include the following, a Ramallah-based source told Al-Monitor: 

* The right of self-determination and creation of a Palestinian state within the framework of the two-state solution.

* That while preserving the internationally legitimate right of resistance and self-defense, the effort for Palestinian statehood needs to be carried out using solely political and diplomatic means. 

* That there will be a single Palestinian power controlling the areas designated for the state of Palestine and that this requires that only the internationally recognized Palestinian government and its security will be allowed to carry arms.

* That governing of all Palestine — including Gaza — as well as the rebuilding of Gaza be carried out through the legitimate Palestinian government.

* That as a Palestinian faction, Hamas is welcome to join the PLO and all its institutions and thus fall under the umbrella entity that is responsible for the national aspirations of all Palestinians.

Palestinian officials in Ramallah would be happy if the summit in China results in both sides agreeing to as many of these issues as possible. Yet even if the two were able to unify under the PLO, details concerning the PA’s role and influence in a postwar plan — and other states' willingness to involve themselves in such a plan — would still be subject to mediation by the United States, Egypt and Qatar.

There is caution alongside the optimism, though. Just this past weekend the two sides argued publicly after a Fatah official accused Hamas of hiding among Gaza residents to protect itself. Hamas called for an apology, yet Fatah doubled down, with Abbas himself putting out a statement saying the group was “a partner in bearing legal, moral and political responsibility” for the war in Gaza. A series of unity talks in Moscow and previous dialogue sponsored by Arab states have failed to achieve progress.