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Analysis

How Iran is calibrating its promised revenge on Israel for Haniyeh killing

Iran's leadership appears torn between exacting harsh revenge to save face and exercising restraint to avoid an unpredictable and devastating cycle of escalation.

Iranians drive next to a billboard of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the Valise square in Tehran on Aug. 1, 2024.
Iranians drive next to a billboard of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the Valise square in Tehran on Aug. 1, 2024. — AFP via Getty Images

TEHRAN — Nearly a week after the killing in Tehran of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, Iranian authorities are weighing their options as to how to respond to Israel, whom they have blamed for the assassination.

From Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and newly elected moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian to hard-line military commanders, the rhetoric has largely centered on the pledge that the killing will not go unanswered, and revenge will be severe and make Israel regret its deed. 

In a similar showdown back in April, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired over 300 drones and missiles toward Israel in retaliation for the Israel-blamed killing of its seven officers inside the Iranian Consulate in Damascus. Most of those projectiles were intercepted before reaching their target.

With a similar scenario still in the offing, pressure is mounting for the new revenge to push new boundaries, as hard-liners argue that the previous attack failed to produce sufficient deterrence against Israel. 

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