How Raisi’s death will impact Turkey-Iran geopolitical rivalry

ANKARA — Turkey’s declaring a national mourning day and its praise for Iran's late President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian will not paper over the many geopolitical tensions between the two countries.

Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian died on May 19 when their helicopter crashed in a mountainous area of the East Azerbaijan province in northwestern Iran. Upon Tehran’s request, Ankara sent its Akinci drone and identified the crash site, enabling Iranian rescue workers to reach the wreckage on the morning of May 20. Later that day, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan praised his late Iranian counterpart at a press conference and announced a day of mourning “in order to share the profound grief carried by the people of Iran.” 

Raisi’s death brought to the surface Turkish skepticism toward Iran. Some Turks brought up the Iranian president’s unflattering nicknames such as “butcher of Tehran” and “hanging judge,” which he was given for his role in the execution of several thousand regime opponents in 1988. Many also questioned Erdogan’s decision in announcing an official day of mourning. Critics pointed out that the Raisi administration had not extended a similar courtesy after the twin earthquakes in 2023 that killed more than 50,000 in Turkey. Meanwhile, women’s rights groups reminded their audience of Raisi’s hard-line stance toward Iranian women and mandatory hijab laws in the wake of Mahsa Amini’s murder and the subsequent mass protests that shook Iran in 2022.

But as experts pointed out to Al-Monitor, the sense of distrust and the myriad geopolitical issues with Turkey will only be suspended while Iran is busy electing a successor to Raisi — who was seen as a potential successor to the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Especially the Armenia-Azerbaijan issue and Iraq will challenge Ankara-Tehran ties.