Iran defiant as world powers work to avert retaliation against Israel

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WASHINGTON — As the Pentagon’s top Middle East commander sat down with Israel’s defense officials on Monday to coordinate a coalition effort to thwart an expected multifront attack by Iran, Russia’s national security chief, Sergei Shoigu, was in Tehran encouraging Iranian leadership to restrain the scope of that planned attack. 

The mirror diplomacy highlighted a moment of shared interest between the two adversaries, which have increasingly competed for long-term influence in the Middle East in recent years.

The region is bracing for anticipated wave of attacks by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel in retaliation for last week’s twin assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.

Russia has much to lose if Iran and Hezbollah's response triggers a regional war, Al-Monitor’s Amberin Zaman reported this week. Russian bases in Syria could come under attack if militias backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps get into a shooting match with the US Air Force, potentially threatening the stability of Moscow’s strategic foothold on the Mediterranean.

The Biden administration has turned to the leaders of Jordan, Egypt and Qatar while rallying G7 allies to convince Iran's leaders that wider regional escalation can only harm everyone's interests, including Tehran's.

Any conflagration that drags the US military back into the Middle East for the long term risks undermining the gains Moscow has made in the region, James Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Iraq, Turkey and Albania, told Al-Monitor. 

“There is a communality of US and Russian views on this,” said Jeffrey, who oversaw the Trump administration's policy of limiting Iran and Russia's foothold in Syria. “Even an aggressive regional partner is better than an aggressive regional partner that destabilizes the region,” he said.

It remained uncertain whether there remains any room for diplomatic cooperation between Washington and Moscow.

Ultimately, the Biden administration aims to tempt Tehran with a cease-fire in Gaza in exchange for holding off on an attack intense enough to trigger an Israeli response the Biden administration will not be able to constrain. 

Iran's diplomatic mission to the UN issued a non-answer Wednesday when Al-Monitor inquired whether its government would accept such a proposal, writing via email, "We have pursued two priorities simultaneously."

Complicating matters, Iran’s reliance on highly motivated militias of varying discipline across the region — an asymmetrical approach designed in part to afford Tehran deniability — poses additional risks. 

On Tuesday, two rockets struck the Ain al-Asad air base in western Iraq, injuring four US troops and one contractor. The Pentagon, which has vowed to retaliate for attacks on its personnel in the region, now finds itself in a dilemma over whether to fire back in this explosive atmosphere. 

Tehran, meanwhile, is signaling defiance. Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani this week slammed the United States and European powers for failing to rein in Israel’s increasingly bold strikes against Iranian targets in past months.

Speaking at an emergency ministerial meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Saudi Arabia Wednesday, Kani said Iran was left with no choice but to respond in order to “prevent further encroachments by [Israel] on the sovereignty, nationals and territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

The retaliation, Kani said, will come “at the appropriate time and in the appropriate manner.” He also accused the United States of complicity, suggesting the strike on Haniyeh would not have been possible without US intelligence support.

“Obviously it wasn’t enough for Tehran to restore deterrence,” Hassan Ahmadian, a professor of regional studies at the University of Tehran told Al-Monitor. 

He said that telegraphing that attack in advance was seen by Iranian leadership as a way to avoid direct conflict with the US while still sending a signal to Israel. “What did they get in exchange for that? Another assassination in Tehran,” Ahmadian added.

Top Biden administration officials have thoroughly denied any foreknowledge of the strike. US officials have since privately said Israel carried out the assassination.

Back in April, US military officials had almost two weeks to prepare a regional air defense coalition thanks to signaling from Tehran both publicly and via diplomatic backchannels. 

That retaliatory attack, during which Iran and its proxies fired more than 330 drones and ballistic missiles toward Israeli military bases, was overwhelmingly thwarted by Israeli defenses backed up by US, European and Arab firepower and intelligence support.

This time, there’s been no sign of forewarning from Tehran, two US officials told Al-Monitor this week. The Pentagon has been rushing additional forces to the region, backfilling the arrival of highly-advanced F-22 fighter jets with F/A-18s launched from the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Red Sea.