Raisi's death unlikely to rattle Iran's foreign, domestic politics

The Islamic Republic of Iran is no stranger to political upheaval, but in its 45-year history the political establishment has managed to keep a steady course and adjust to new realities and it will weather the readjustment process started by the helicopter crash that killed President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials. 

The delegation was on a helicopter traveling from the border region between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan. Raisi and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, had inaugurated a dam in the East Azerbaijan province in Iran. While conspiracy theories of a potential assassination have been floated among the Iranian public, there are no indications of a wider agenda and it is quite likely that it was an accident with political consequences.

It would be a mistake to view Raisi’s sudden death as a major disruption to the political dynamics in Iran. Rather, the Islamic Republic will go through an adjustment process without massive political shifts. Focusing on realities and not conspiracy theories, what will that process mean for the country’s domestic politics, regional relations and foreign policy?

One key aspect of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rule over the past 35 years has been to never show any sign of weakness or vulnerability, so he needs the constitutionally mandated transition process to a new president to go smoothly. So far, there are strong signs that it will. First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber has taken over in the role of interim president and the date for the next presidential election has been set for June 28.