Somalia eyes fresh external support amid fears of al-Shabab takeover

The African Union earlier this week agreed to the formation of a new force of 12,000 troops to assist Somalia in its fight against Islamist insurgents and to assuage apprehension in Mogadishu in light of the plan to complete the withdrawal of the roughly 15,000 current peacekeepers, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), by the end of this year.

The alarm in the Somali capital stems from the apparent failure of Operation Black Lion, launched in July 2022 to combat al-Shabab, the al-Qaeda-affiliated group that controls large portions of Somalia and seeks to overthrow the government. The operation was designed as a two-phase regional stabilization effort that would, first, establish internal security and, second, guarantee the security of neighboring Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya.

The government had hoped to gain the popular support of tribes and even offered amnesty to al-Shabab. In aligning with tribes at odds with the insurgents, the government managed to advance in regions in the center of the country, using Turkish armed drones and US-trained troops and air cover, but it failed to achieve much in other areas.

Amid the deployment of inexperienced government troops due to heavy casualties (including among high-ranking officers) and reduced contributions by tribal militia, however, al-Shabab has over the past six months reversed all the government’s gains in central Somalia, a US official told Voice of America last week.